The bounded log-odds model of frequency and probability distortion


People systematically distort probability and frequency information in decision-making and in many other perceptual, motor and cognitive tasks. We show that the form of distortion is typically a linear transformation of log odds and show the slope and the intercept of the linear transformation can be manipulated experimentally (Zhang & Maloney, 2012). The question then is: What control(s) the slope and intercept of probability distortion? We are developing a cognitive process model to explain probability distortion and its variations as the consequence of a bounded representation of log-odds in human cognition (Zhang & Maloney, in prep)