The bounded log-odds model of frequency and probability distortion
NEUROSCIENCE The bounded log-odds model of frequency and probability distortion ABSTRACT People systematically distort probability and frequency information in decision-making and in many other perceptual, motor and cognitive tasks. We show that...
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More infoInterrupting counterfactual representations in the lateral frontal pole
NEUROSCIENCE Interrupting counterfactual representations in the lateral frontal pole ABSTRACT I am collaborating with researchers at Oxford University who have discovered that the lateral frontal pole displays a unique connectivity profile in...
More infoGenes, Smoking, and Health
NEUROSCIENCE Genes, Smoking, and Health ABSTRACT Research on the impact of genes on smoking and through smoking on health. We are using the genomic Health and Retirement Survey both to confirm earlier GWAS findings on smoking and genes, and to...
More infoLearning the probability of success in a simple motor task from sequences of success and failure
NEUROSCIENCE Learning the probability of success in a simple motor task from sequences of success and failure ABSTRACT Successful decision making depends on accurate knowledge of probabilities of outcomes: should I really try to climb that sheer...
More infoA Bayesian model of insight
NEUROSCIENCE A Bayesian model of insight ABSTRACT We are building a computational model of insight. The core of this model permits actions to dissociate from intentions. Our model provides a Bayesian “definition” of insight as the probability...
More infoEnvisioning the Improbable: Judgment and Strategy in Heavy-Tailed Contexts
NEUROSCIENCE Envisioning the Improbable: Judgment and Strategy in Heavy-Tailed Contexts ABSTRACT This multi-method research seeks to increase understanding of the judgment, behavior, and performance of individuals and organizations in...
More infoThree Exciting Papers Published by ISDM Prof. Jay van Bavel
Three Exciting Papers Published by ISDM Prof. Jay van Bavel May 10, 2017 Congratulations to Professor Jay van Bavel, who collaborated in three papers that have recently been published. For the paper, Decoding “us” and “them”: Neural...
More infoThe MINY Van Project
NEUROSCIENCE The MINY Van Project ABSTRACT Research on household financial decisions using a newly-constituted Vanguard Research Institute Panel. The project models and measures wealth accumulation, asset holding, health, long term care, and...
More infoCostly information sampling
NEUROSCIENCE Costly information sampling ABSTRACT Theories of optimal information sampling assert that the decision to gather information should take into account accrual costs: time, energy, and money. This project explored how effectively...
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